10st 9lbs. A ‘gambler with a private wire’ gets advanced word of the outcome of baseball games. The question arises because it is widely believed that the Kelly criterion is best for betting online, while, in fact, its use is appropriate only if our betting system has been actually. This works out at: (0. This means that the bettor should wager 20% of their bankroll on Liverpool to win. This means that the. Are you open to new opportunity?- 15:00: No bet. 5) – 60)/2) = 16% of your bank. Much later, investors adopted the idea, with investors such as Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Jim Simons, and Mohnish Pabrai embracing. Cricket. You are a corrupt telegraph operator, providing a ‘private wire’ service that transmits messages reporting horse racing results to anyone who can afford to pay you. Create your own Horse and Greyhound Selection Systems in TBM by using the built in System Builder tool – Selection Hunter. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. 5 if you want to wager 50% of the stake recommended by the Kelly. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Criterion is a 12 year old horse that was born in 2011 and raced from 2013 to 2016. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. I would describe it as the ability to spot and identify the very smallest details of a horse's performance in a race and correctly interpret the significance and. If 3 bets were made every week, it would take The calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. at Bell Labs, is an optimal sizing of bets, given an initial pool of wealth, to maximize the doubling rate of wealth in a repeated bets scenario. The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine the proper size of a bet with known odds and a definite payout. The famous Kelly betting criterion (Kelly, 1956), which maximizes a logarithmic utility function, is widely used to choose s. Kelly Strategy Bet Calculator. 20 or 20% of their bankroll. 2. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. 45)/ (2. Featured Football. The best staking plan debate. g. . O. 35 * 0. In horse racing, this is based on the player's own handicapping of the race. 04. The Kelly Criterion (a. Venetia Williams. TBM incorporates Race Card data for UK/IRE Horse Racing and UK Greyhound Racing. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2. Total Performance Data have recorded his max stride at 26. 00 – 1) f* =0. We develop a general framework to apply the Kelly criterion to the stock market data, and consequently, to portfolio optimization. Claim one token. The ultimate value betting calculator. Today, Warren Buffet and others use it for investing purposes. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. For any queries relating to. Kelly’s base assumption that 100% of capital can be allocated to a single bet necessitates that the formula is naturally cautious when sizing a position that has potential loss. John Kelly developed his formula whilst working at AT&T’s Bell Laboratory when attempting to solve their long-distance signal noise issues. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closer10 March 2021. The formula takes into account the probability of winning a bet, the odds of the bet, and the bettor’s bankroll size. 10 Ideas for Trifecta Profits (Part 1) The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. 1. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. However, the coin is biased and has a 52% chance of ending up on heads. With sports betting, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. 1 of the amount they have set aside for gambling purposes. For any queries relating to. This is due to the requirement that the gambler commits to a specific outcome of the team game. Previously he had competed in a couple of good races at York and his trainer Geoff Oldroyd. Golf. Kelly Criterion mathematical equation takes into account your bankroll, your own calculated winning probability of the outcome you are betting on, and the odds available from the bookmaker. Twitter user @optibrebs recently made me aware of the generalised Kelly Criterion (a. The Kelly Criterion is well-known among gamblers as a way to decide how much to bet when the odds are in your favor. 5. Racing. So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. . One of the easiest mistakes to make. RaceQuant enlisted our team to use machine learning to more accurately predict the outcome of horse races, to advise betting. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. Kelly Criterion User Name: Remember Me? Password: Google Site Search: Get RDSS: Sartin Library: RDSS FAQs: Conduct: Register: Site FAQ: Members List: Today's Posts: Search: General Discussion General Horse Racing DiscussionRespected under a 4 lb penalty. Popular. The Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy created by J L Kelly, a scientific researcher, back in 1956. 2 Kelly gambling In Kelly gambling, we place a xed fraction of our total wealth (assumed positive) on nbets. ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?Kelly Criterion Calculator. Whenever the question of optimal betting size pops up in handicapping or money management books, you usually see Kelly. Premier. Premier. Kelly Criterion was developed in 1956 by John L. — Gabe Prewitt of the Red Mile has been overseeing the start of the 2023 live racing season here at the. THE KELLY CRITERION IN BLACKJACK, SPORTS BETTING, AND THE STOCK MARKET by Edward O. The formula was derived by J. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss. 0 (100%), but if you do not want to wager the full. The second is the approach of Markowitz’s Modern portfolio. Football. Racing Results & Replays. A head the other way this month would have seen a profit, but the bedding-in period is now over, and we look to kick on in August. The Kelly Criterion also works for horse race betting. You think the horse has 50% of winning. poker in casino, horse racing, sport betting, an d so on, the odds . 0) than a 5% edge at 1/3 (1. For example: I would like to bet at 20 matches what are playing at the same time. In Chapter 6, we will talk about some methods in misconceptions in estimating placed probability. O. We denote the fractions as b2Rn, so b 0 and 1Tb= 1, where 1 is the vector with allIn its simplest possible form, the Kelly Criterion states that, on an even money bet, the percentage of the bankroll to bet is: (Win probability x 2) - 1. Spanish LaLiga. It means your implied probability is 0. 10. 33pts. This improvement has arrived in time for the big meetings of the Flat racing season but we hope you will enjoy using it at all stages of the horse racing calendar. Enter the odds, which represent the potential payout for winning the bet. (You can turn a negative ROI into a positive one — at least in games of skill like horse racing — through greater education and better information. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. By three laps. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ; More Horse Racing Tips. 10. who was a mathematician at Bell Labs in the 1950s. It allowed gamblers to increase the size of their winnings over a long period of time. Use the Right Formula. If there is a fixed amount of bets the Kelly criterion will be suboptimal, but as the number of bets grows the optimal strategy will asymptotically reach the Kelly criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps investors and gamblers calculate what percentage of their money they should allocate to each investment or bet. 13:30 - Triumph Hurdle: Elliott can thwart Mullins. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that is used to take optimally sized bets and grow your capital at the maximum rate possible. 52 = 0. Thorp. — Gabe Prewitt of the Red Mile has been overseeing the start of the 2023 live racing season here at the. Betting Strategies For Horse Racing Part 2: Kelly Criterion. I should warn an edge like that would require some serious inside info. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). And at Caesars, the race took the checkers from NASCAR, which has leaned hard into sports betting as a fan-engagement vehicle. 2022 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to. Duhallow Tommy showed a fairly useful level of form in bumpers last season, opening his account in that sphere at the third attempt at Fontwell in January, and he. 60 x 1. Example of Kelly Criterion in Horse Racing. German Bundesliga. Therefore, as judged on the last 10 runnings of the race, a horse rated 149-150 is optimal. * f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager; * b is the odds received on the wager; * p is the probability of winning; * q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. Getting staking right is key to profitable punting. 40 together to get 0. Kelly himself was an interesting character: a chain smoking Texan who used to be a fighter pilot in the Navy during World War 2, he was also brilliant researcher. If 3 bets were made every week, it would takeThe calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. Kelly’s work focused on optimizing information transmission over a noisy channel. Based on the Kelly criterion, K% = (1 × 0. Nick Mordin devoted a chapter to the Kelly Criterion in his book Winning Without Thinking, which also had the original paper in the appendix,. Part 1 of this series provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion along with a worked example. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. ALAN DUDMAN'S P & L. Cheltenham NAP - 16:00 - Back Brechin Castle. Most only know a simplified version. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. Second, notice that betting just a tiny bit more than the Kelly criterion suggests leads to decreased profits with higher risk . This is how the simplified Kelly looks. 33pts. Of course, the bracket has to be reduced in this year's race because of a lack of strength and depth. 31% of your bankroll on Real Madrid. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. This means that the optimal size of your bet is 10% of your bankroll. Venera. Alex Fielding. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. The objective is to maximize the Kelly criterion, which is equivalent to maximizing the ex-pected logarithm of wealth. Applying the Kelly criterion without. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root. Thorp is the real deal, but he's not talking about horse racing. Where a bet has two outcomes (either losing the stake or winning the stake multiplied by the odds offered by the bookmaker or casino), the Kelly bet is as shown in the formula above…. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. When Morphettville first held racing in 1875, with the first race was won by a horse called “Red Gauntlet” owned by the Honourable Thomas Elder who had sold the land to the SAJC to create the Morphettville racecourse. Three are three outcomes to the team game: Team1 wins. If you bet less than 10%, you’re not taking full advantage of. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where. In addition to our automated calculator above, you can also download our excel version below. Tony Calvin has been in the racing and tipping business for over 25 years, encompassing a 12-year stint at the Racing Post and an 11-year spell as Head Of Media at Betfair. 30 June 2010. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change. Example of the Kelly Criterion: Let’s say you have analyzed a game and determined that the underdogs have a 40% chance of winning, and their odds are +200 (3. 6. PointsBet, an Australian-based sportsbook with a significant market share in the US, launched the PointsBet Horse Racing app ahead of the 2023 Triple Crown series. How big a buy-in should you be willing to pay? Suppose you're horse racing, and you think that 2 of the horses are priced wrong, how much should you bet on each?. Well, duh, the title is The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting and Stock Market. US Horse Racing Tips as our US tipsters at TVG and Timeform. Editor. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. It doesn’t take asymmetric utility into account. 00. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for. While this was formulated around table games, it is a concept that can be. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleWhen making crucial sports betting decisions, it is not just important to find the right sports events to bet on but to also have an appropriate strategy to divide or manage your financial portfolio. 4 (40% chance of failure). Royal Ascot - 15:40: Lay Bluestocking. Horse Racing Tips: Faith in Fanshawe's Willem for Wednesday 18/1 Kempton double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Ryan Moore: River Tiber holds leading claims in my Friday three; Horse Racing. Aidan O'Brien's unbeaten River Tiber 9/43. This post is Part 2 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. Betfair have enlisted the help of the experts at Timeform to bring you the best ante-post analysis for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival (March 16-19). This type of situation is common in horse racing, where. Before addressing your investment strategy, learn about the Kelly criterion and see if it’s a fit for you. WITH KELLY. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. 5 which equals a stake of 16. 6 (60% chance of success). Kelly gambling problem, and relate it to classical Markowitz portfolio optimization. Lose weight. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. 33). The Kelly Criterion is designed for value betting systems. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. 1) Regardless of what you make the chance of the horse, 60%, 50%, 40% , 30% if the odds on offer are 4/1 your stake is 20 points. The objective is to maximize the Kelly criterion, which is equivalent to maximizing the ex-pected logarithm of wealth. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. Venera. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. Now, if we return to the figures we already provided, the equation will look like this: ( (2 x 0. 60 – 0. Just as it is for sports bettors, poker players or horse racing bettors, following a practical money management plan is one of those things. 2023 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to 1pt stake (0. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. After getting published in 1956, the gambling community got wind of it and realized its prospects in the horse racing betting system. Daily Racing Multiple. Jacot. 15:20 Pontefract - Back Classy Boy @ 7/4 2. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. According to the Kelly Formula you should bet 4% of your fund on game 1 and 2% of your fund on game 2. Note that if the formula is absolutely strictly applied, one would literally never make an. Horse Racing Tips: Tommie can be our rock in Sunday 9/1 Fontwell multiple ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Rachael Blackmore: Ain't That A Shame can go well in Troytown Handicap Chase; Horse. She is currently rated 94 and 6/1 6. L. 10. Many have found the "half Kelly". BTW, Thorpe, started the counting craze in BJ. In sports betting, the Kelly Criterion can be used. What Are Kelly Betting Systems?Four staking plans are compared: full-Kelly, half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly and eighth-Kelly. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. You just can't bet at that level. Now live in 25 states, this. Essentially the formula gives the optimal size of bets in order to win as much as possible over time while reducing the risk of ruin. 8. 1-p) The Kelly Criterion works by analyzing the probability of each horse winning the race and determining the optimal amount of money to bet on each horse. Wanees has the right sort of profile for this race and. Kelly Jr. You then multiply 2 and 0. Kelly betting can be applied to Blackjack with a high degree of certainty in the calculated probabilities. while reducing volatility. So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. The latter corresponds to a specific allocation of the gambler's capital on the M horses: if we denote by C t the gambler's. The best staking plan debate. This is of paramount importance. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. 05 2/1 coming off second best to Pied Piper 4. He developed the formula to maximize the long-term growth rate of capital when making bets with a. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root of any. 5pt EW) settled at BSP: +5. The Kelly Staking Formula. This value should be in decimal format (e. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. The median rating is 149mean is 149. This type of situation is. 40) / 1. He's a BIG player in the financial markets and I'm sure he moves that kind of money all the time. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing. This shows that according to the Kelly Criterion formula, you should stake 25% of the amounts you have set for betting. 8. 2023 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to 1pt stake (0. 50 ($1250 x 25% = $312. 2$ and his odds are $1$ so you. Blackbow - 14:00 Naas. a. Cricket. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. Horse Racing Schedule; Harness Racing Schedule; Stakes Races Schedule; Kentucky Derby Prep Races; Racetracks; Odds. Blackbow was ultimately only fifth in a two-mile-five-furlong handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, but he looked set to make a much bigger impact for most of. Golf. 66% of your bank. Kelly Criterion – Part 2 – Derivation. The bettingexpert Academy introduces you to advanced betting theory including calculating implied probability, the kelly criterion and predictive modelling. To overcome the bookmaker's margin you need. România. Using the Kelly Calculator The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. Here’s. Timeform best bets. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. Jacot+1. US Presidential Election Odds; Today's Horse Racing Odds; News. [Read more…] about The Kelly Criterion Staking Method Explained. The Kelly Criterion works by analyzing the probability of each horse winning the race and determining the optimal amount of money to bet on each horse. @tony_calvin will be live on our Twitter spaces this and every Saturday from 8am for a 30 min update show with @mccueryan12 chatting Going Updates Market Movers ITV Races and. Read the article Kelly criterion and fractional Kelly strategy for non-mutually exclusive bets on R Discovery, your go-to avenue for effective literature search. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. 50 (or 5/2 with an implied probability of 28. many horses; he assumed the track take to be zero. ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. The multiplier is normally set to 50%, for an aggressive betting strategy set it to 100%. That, in a nutshell, is how the Kelly Criterion works. Get a completely free horse racing multiple bet and horse racing tips from Tony Calvin and more plus expert insight from Paul Nicholls and Ryan Moore. I should warn an edge like that would require some serious inside info. 55)-0. Golf. Of course, the Kelly has also been adapted for other "bets," including blackjack. Fixed Odds & Multiples bets are placed with PPB Counterparty Services Limited which is licensed and regulated by the . She. 50), and our new target bankroll is $1562. many horses; he assumed the track take to be zero. 60 to get 0. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race; How to use Timeform Ratings;Football. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. “The Las Vegas Grand Prix was the most bet F1 event. 50 ($1250 + $312. Rugby Union Tips. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ;. It is a simple…Whether you’re looking to back winners, find each-way value picks or place multiple bets, Betting. The goal of the equation is this: don’t go broke. The standard kelly betting is 1. The Kelly Criterion is a recognized money management system used extensively in horse and sports betting, and in the stock market. In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. 1. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies and review their common modifications used in practice. 13 March 2021. Through the use of the Kelly Criterion gamblers were able to maximize their bankrolls over the long term. Today, Warren Buffet and others use it for investing purposes. e. evident from looking at the Kelly Criterion graph. It can also be a. LEXINGTON, Ky. If we replace them in the formula, here’s what you get. The Kelly Criterion implies you should bet 22. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. “Fortune’s Formula” is the Kelly Criterion from J. 45)/1=0. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. Matej Uhrín, Gustav Šourek, Ondřej Hubáček, Filip Železný. It can also be a. Introduction In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. 73 feet. For any queries relating to. You think the horse has 50% of winning. 1 day ago · Featured Horse Racing. 1) Regardless of what you make the chance of the horse, 60%, 50%, 40% , 30% if the odds on offer are 4/1 your stake is 20 points. Any horse racing system must have a money management component built in. The underlying purpose of the reviewed modifications is to mitigate the. while working at AT&T's Bell Laboratories. Brookhouse. Using the Kelly Criterion, you can calculate the optimal bet size. They wanted me to figure out a way to compute the Kelly criterion (see below) as a means to exponentially increase their pool of money over repeated bets. Satiate should go close in this restricted $5k claimer on the main track. The Kelly Criterion helps you calculate the optimal amount you should wager when there is a difference between the true odds and the given odds at the. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: South Africa and New Zealand to serve up classic final. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. From this calculation, if you were to bet on the Celtics to beat the Lakers, the Kelly Criterion suggests you should only bet 4% of your bankroll or capital. Kelly betting or proportional betting is an application of information theory to investing and gambling. They Kelly criterion is a formula used to determine how much of your money to place on a particular gamble. If you are going to place for example 100$ on these two games, you should use 4/6 = 66,7 % = £67 on game 1 and 2/6 = 33,3% = £33 on game 2. Learn how much you need to stake with the help of our easy-to-use Kelly Criterion bet calculator!Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleYard seeking a fourth win in this since 2014. Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. Enter the probability (%), which represents the likelihood of winning the bet. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Featured Rugby. , a physicist and information theorist who worked at AT&T’s Bell Laboratories. Murray Bridge Racecourse. By E. Monks Dream (Ire) Tim Easterby. 45)/ (2. WITH KELLY. ROI = -14. Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a famous formula developed by its name-sake John Kelly Jr and is used by many a handicapper and blackjack player. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies, and review their common modifications used in practice. distributions are fi xed in advance. 10. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: England to finish on high with Argentina win. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. f = 0. This paper informative post shows the results of using Kelly criterion in a gamble of bidding T steps, and derives the relation of profits between using p and W/T as the winning probability in the Kelly formula, respectively. Jun 16, 2023 By Rebecca Martin Multiple strategies in the sports betting world claim to help bettors maximize their profits and manage their banks effectively. Kelly described. Kelly Criterion maximizes the wealth in the long-run. 70 2pt win Both Point Given and Classy Boy - 7/4 2. 60 x 1. F. The Kelly criterion: exploiting favorable bets and the stock market In many ways this is my favorite topic to talk about. Horse Betting 101 Edit. This isn’t taking into account your odds, probability or perception of value. 5/2.